About Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd is one of India's largest integrated sugar manufacturing companies, with significant operations in ethanol production and power generation. The company's performance is closely tied to government sugar policies, monsoon patterns, and global sugar prices.
Quarterly Price Target Projections (Oct 2025 - 2026)
| Period | Projected Price Target (₹) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 | 460 - 480 | Hold |
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2026 | 485 - 520 | Buy |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) 2026 | 525 - 570 | Buy |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) 2026 | 540 - 590 | Hold / Profit Booking |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2026 | 580 - 630 | Strong Buy |
Quarterly Financial Performance Projections (2026)
| Metric (Quarterly) | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 1,450 - 1,550 | 1,500 - 1,620 | 1,480 - 1,580 | 1,600 - 1,720 |
| Net Income (₹ Cr) | 115 - 130 | 125 - 145 | 120 - 135 | 140 - 160 |
| EPS (₹) | 5.7 - 6.4 | 6.2 - 7.2 | 5.9 - 6.7 | 6.9 - 7.9 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 12.5 - 13.5 | 13.0 - 14.0 | 12.8 - 13.8 | 13.5 - 14.5 |
| Remarks | Hold | Buy | Hold | Strong Buy |
Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance
| Level Type | Price (₹) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Strong Resistance | 475 - 485 | Sell / Profit Booking |
| Current Price | 452.20 | Hold |
| Strong Support | 430 - 420 | Buy |
| Breakout Level | > 485 | Strong Buy |
| Breakdown Level | < 420 | Sell |
Upside Price Projections (Post-Breakout)
| Target Level | Projected Price (₹) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 510 - 525 | Buy |
| Target 2 | 550 - 570 | Strong Buy |
| Target 3 | 590 - 610 | Hold / Profit Booking |
Downside Price Projections (Post-Breakdown)
| Target Level | Projected Price (₹) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 400 - 390 | Sell |
| Target 2 | 380 - 370 | Strong Sell |
| Target 3 | 360 - 350 | Strong Sell |
Current Valuation Metrics
| Metric | Value | Industry Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.93 | Slightly Above Average |
| Market Cap (₹ Cr) | 9,130 | Large Cap |
| Dividend Yield | 0.66% | Below Average |
| Price to Book | 2.40 | Fairly Valued |
| 52-Week Range | 419.05 - 691.80 | Trading at Lower End |
Investment Opportunity
- Government ethanol blending policy presents significant growth potential
- Strong market position as one of India's largest sugar producers
- Diversified revenue streams from sugar, ethanol, and power generation
- Current price near 52-week low provides attractive entry point
- Seasonal patterns suggest potential upside in coming quarters
Key Risk Factors
- High dependency on government sugar policies and subsidies
- Volatility in global sugar prices impacting profitability
- Monsoon dependence affecting sugarcane availability
- Regulatory changes in ethanol blending mandates
- Increasing competition in the sugar industry
Investment Strategy & Recommendations
- Short-term (0-3 months): Accumulate on dips towards ₹430-420 support zone
- Medium-term (3-9 months): Hold with target of ₹520-570 if breakout occurs
- Long-term (9+ months): Consider profit booking above ₹590 if targets achieved
- Stop-loss: Maintain stop-loss at ₹400 for short-term positions
- Portfolio Allocation: Consider 3-5% portfolio allocation for balanced risk
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