Yes Bank Share Price Targets & Financial Projections
Current Market Price
₹21.30
Market Cap
₹66.62K Cr
P/E Ratio
24.26
52-wk High/Low
₹23.39 / ₹16.02
Price to Book
1.38
Return on Assets
0.59%
Key Calculations & Analysis
Valuation Analysis: Based on P/E of 24.26 and industry average P/E of 18-22, Yes Bank appears slightly overvalued on earnings basis but justified by growth prospects.
Growth Premium: The high P/E ratio reflects market expectations for continued strong earnings growth following the 89.53% net income increase in 2025.
Book Value Per Share: ₹15.26 (Total Equity 478.36B / Shares Outstanding 31.35B). Current price trades at 1.38x book value.
Earnings Yield: 4.12% (1/24.26), which is competitive with fixed income alternatives.
Financial Performance Projections (2025-2026)
| Financial Metric | FY 2024 (Base) | FY 2025 (Actual) | Y/Y Change 2025 | FY 2026 (Projected) | Projected Growth | Industry Average | Performance Rating | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (INR) | 115.48B | 139.92B | 21.17% | 165 - 175B | 17.9% - 25.1% | 12-15% | Strong revenue momentum expected to continue | |
| Operating Expense (INR) | 100.10B | 107.68B | 7.58% | 112 - 118B | 4.0% - 9.6% | 8-10% | Cost control measures showing results | |
| Net Income (INR) | 12.85B | 24.36B | 89.53% | 28 - 32B | 14.9% - 31.4% | 10-15% | Exceptional profit growth normalizing | |
| Net Profit Margin | 11.12% | 17.41% | 56.42% | 17% - 18.5% | -2.4% to +6.3% | 14-16% | Maintaining improved profitability levels | |
| Earnings Per Share (EPS) | 0.43 | 0.77 | 79.07% | 0.90 - 1.02 | 16.9% - 32.5% | 0.60-0.80 | Strong EPS growth driving shareholder value | |
| P/E Ratio | 32.15 | 24.26 | -24.54% | 21 - 24 | -13.4% to -1.1% | 18-22 | Valuation multiple normalizing with growth |
Valuation Metrics & Projections
Forward P/E (2026): 20.9-23.7 (based on EPS range of 0.90-1.02 and current price of ₹21.30)
PEG Ratio (2025): 0.27 (P/E of 24.26 divided by earnings growth of 89.53%) - indicates potential undervaluation on growth-adjusted basis
Price/Sales Ratio (2025): 0.48 (Market Cap 66.62K Cr / Revenue 139.92B = 0.476)
Return on Equity (2025): 5.09% (Net Income 24.36B / Total Equity 478.36B = 0.0509)
Dividend Yield (Projected 2026): 0.8-1.2% (based on expected dividend payout of 15-20% of earnings)
Expected Price Targets & Trading Levels (Oct 2025 - Dec 2026)
| Period | Expected Price Target | Downside Risk Target | Support / Strong Buy Level | Resistance / Strong Sell Level | Best Buy Level | Profit Booking / Sell Level | Upside Potential | Risk Level | Market Sentiment | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2025 | ₹24 - ₹25 | ₹19.50 | ₹19.50 - ₹20.00 | ₹25.00 | ₹20.00 - ₹20.80 | ₹24.50 - ₹25.00 | 12.7% - 17.4% | Medium | Neutral to Positive | Quarterly results, festive demand |
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) 2026 | ₹26 - ₹28 | ₹21.00 | ₹21.00 - ₹21.50 | ₹28.00 | ₹21.50 - ₹22.50 | ₹27.00 - ₹28.00 | 22.1% - 31.5% | Medium | Positive | Union Budget, Q3 results |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) 2026 | ₹29 - ₹32 | ₹23.00 | ₹23.00 - ₹24.00 | ₹32.00 | ₹24.00 - ₹25.00 | ₹30.00 - ₹32.00 | 36.2% - 50.2% | Medium-High | Bullish | Annual results, guidance |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) 2026 | ₹31 - ₹34 | ₹25.00 | ₹25.00 - ₹26.00 | ₹34.00 | ₹26.00 - ₹27.00 | ₹32.00 - ₹34.00 | 45.5% - 59.6% | High | Very Bullish | Q1 FY27 results, monsoon impact |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) 2026 | ₹33 - ₹36 | ₹26.00 | ₹26.00 - ₹27.00 | ₹36.00 | ₹27.00 - ₹28.00 | ₹34.00 - ₹36.00 | 54.9% - 69.0% | High | Extremely Bullish | H2 FY27 outlook, global cues |
Technical Analysis & Key Levels
| Technical Indicator | Current Value | Previous Value | Signal | Strength | Trend Direction | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (Relative Strength Index) | 58 | 62 | Neutral | Medium | Sideways | Not overbought (>70) or oversold (<30 for="" movement.="" room="" td="" upward=""> |
| MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) | 0.45 | 0.38 | Bullish | Strong | Upward | Short-term momentum remains positive despite recent consolidation. |
| 50-Day Moving Average | ₹20.45 | ₹20.20 | Support | Strong | Upward | Current price trading above 50-DMA indicates medium-term bullish trend. |
| 200-Day Moving Average | ₹18.92 | ₹18.75 | Strong Support | Very Strong | Upward | Long-term trend remains bullish with price well above 200-DMA. |
| Volume Trend (30-day avg) | 25.4M | 22.8M | Bullish | Medium | Increasing | Rising volumes on up days confirm buyer interest. |
| Volatility (Beta) | 1.25 | 1.28 | High | Consistent | Stable | 25% more volatile than market. Higher risk but higher potential returns. |
| Bollinger Band Position | Upper Band: ₹23.10 Lower Band: ₹18.25 |
Upper Band: ₹22.85 Lower Band: ₹17.95 |
Neutral | Medium | Expanding | Trading in middle band suggests consolidation before next move. |
Investment Horizon & Price Targets
| Investment Horizon | Buy Price Zone | Target Price | Stop Loss | Risk-Reward Ratio | Expected Return | Probability of Success | Time Frame | Portfolio Allocation | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short Term | ₹20 - ₹21.50 | ₹25 - ₹28 | ₹19.00 | 1:2.5 to 1:4.5 | 17-31% | 70% | 3-6 Months | 5-8% | Trading bounce based on technical levels and quarterly sentiment. |
| Medium Term | ₹20 - ₹22 | ₹30 - ₹34 | ₹18.50 | 1:4 to 1:6 | 36-60% | 65% | 6-12 Months | 8-12% | Bet on continued financial improvement and execution on business plans. |
| Long Term | ₹19 - ₹22 (Averaging) | ₹40+ | ₹17.00 | 1:7 to 1:10+ | 88%+ | 55% | 2-3 Years | 10-15% | Full business turnaround, significant expansion in loan book, and sustained profitability. |
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Analysis
| Metric | FY 2024 (Base) | FY 2025 (Actual) | Y/Y Change | Analysis | Impact on Valuation | Peer Comparison | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Short-term Investments | 510.02B | 590.32B | +15.74% | Strong liquidity position provides operational flexibility | Positive - supports higher valuation multiples | Above Average | Stable to Improving |
| Total Assets | 4.06T | 4.24T | +4.37% | Steady asset growth indicates business expansion | Positive - demonstrates scaling operations | Average | Gradual Growth |
| Total Liabilities | 3.64T | 3.76T | +3.32% | Liability growth slower than assets, improving balance sheet health | Positive - reduces financial risk | Better than Peers | Improving |
| Total Equity | 420.15B | 478.36B | +13.86% | Strong equity growth enhances financial stability | Positive - increases book value per share | Above Average | Strong Growth |
| Cash from Operations | -392.15B | -118.04B | +69.89% | Negative but improved significantly - turnaround in progress | Neutral - monitoring required but showing improvement | Below Average | Rapid Improvement |
| Cash from Investing | 31.75B | 85.27B | +168.60% | Significant positive cash flow from investment activities | Positive - indicates profitable investment decisions | Excellent | Strong |
| Cash from Financing | 515.82B | 125.39B | -75.71% | Reduced reliance on financing, indicating self-sustainability | Positive - lower dependency on external capital | Better than Peers | Improving |
Financial Health Assessment
Asset Quality: Improving with reduction in NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) as per latest quarterly reports - GNPA ratio improved to 2.5% from 3.1% YoY
Capital Adequacy Ratio: 17.2% (above regulatory requirement of 11.5%), providing buffer against shocks
Liquidity Coverage Ratio: 125% (well above 100% requirement), ensuring short-term obligations can be met
Net Interest Margin (NIM): Improved to 3.1% from 2.7% YoY, expected to stabilize around 3.0-3.2% as loan mix improves
CASA Ratio: 35.4% (up from 31.2% YoY) - improving low-cost deposit base supporting margins
Peer Comparison & Valuation
| Bank | Current Price (₹) | P/E Ratio | Price to Book | ROE (%) | Net NPA (%) | Dividend Yield (%) | Market Cap (Cr) | Yes Bank Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes Bank | 21.30 | 24.26 | 1.38 | 5.09 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 66,620 | Benchmark |
| HDFC Bank | 950.55 | 21.09 / 20.24 (Standalone / Consolidated) |
3.18 | 15.06 | 0.35 | 1.15 | 14,60,077.87 | Undervalued on P/E, lower quality |
| ICICI Bank | 1,359.15 | 19.83 / 17.19 (Standalone / Consolidated) |
3.74 | 18.85 | 0.48 | 0.85 | 9,70,936.78 | Higher P/E justified by growth |
| Axis Bank | 1,153.00 | 13.52 / 10.00 (Standalone / Consolidated) |
2.15 | 15.88 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 3,54,181.28 | Premium valuation for turnaround story |
| Kotak Mahindra | 2,044.70 | 21.05 / 20.24 (Standalone / Consolidated) |
3.17 | 15.06 | 0.42 | 0.35 | 14,59,847.47 | Similar P/E, higher growth potential |
| IndusInd Bank | 732.90 | 48.46 / 56.53 (Standalone / Consolidated) |
0.87 | 1.80 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 56,934.87 | Higher P/E multiple for growth |
Pro Tips to Manage Risk in Yes Bank Stock
Yes Bank is a classic "turnaround story" with high potential but also high risk. Here's how to manage that risk:
- Use a Staggered Investment Approach: Do not invest all your capital at once. Use the "Best Buy Levels" mentioned to buy in parts (Averaging). Consider SIP approach for long-term investment.
- Set Strict Stop-Losses: For short-term trades, always have a stop-loss order, typically 8-10% below your purchase price. For the current level, a stop-loss below ₹19.50 is crucial.
- Book Profits Periodically: Given the stock's volatile history, do not be greedy. Book partial profits at the "Profit Booking" levels mentioned in the table. Consider selling 30-50% of position at key resistance levels.
- Monitor Key Metrics: Keep a close watch on the bank's quarterly Asset Quality (GNPA/NNPA ratios), Net Interest Margin (NIM), and Loan Growth. Any deterioration here is a major red flag.
- Diversify: Never make Yes Bank a disproportionately large part of your portfolio. It should be a tactical, satellite holding, not a core holding. Limit exposure to 10-15% of equity portfolio.
- Understand the Macro Risk: The stock is sensitive to interest rate changes and broader economic health. Be aware of RBI policies and economic growth indicators.
- Track Institutional Activity: Monitor FII and DII buying/selling patterns as they significantly impact price movement. Rising institutional holding is a positive sign.
- Follow Management Guidance: Pay close attention to management commentary in concalls and annual reports. Any change in strategy or tempered guidance should be carefully evaluated.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected price target for Yes Bank by end of 2026?
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Based on our analysis, Yes Bank could reach ₹33-₹36 by Q4 2026, provided the bank maintains its growth trajectory and the broader market remains supportive. This represents a potential upside of 55-69% from the current price of ₹21.30. The target is based on FY2027 estimated EPS of ₹1.10-₹1.25 and P/E multiple of 27-30x, justified by the growth premium.
Is Yes Bank a good long-term investment?
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Yes Bank shows potential as a long-term investment with a target of ₹40+ over 2-3 years, but it carries higher risk due to its turnaround status. The bank has shown significant improvement in financial metrics, but investors should use a staggered approach and proper risk management. Key positives include improving asset quality, strong revenue growth, and return to profitability. However, the stock remains volatile and sensitive to macroeconomic factors.
What are the key risk factors for Yes Bank?
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Key risks include asset quality deterioration, slower-than-expected loan growth, macroeconomic challenges, increased competition in the banking sector, regulatory changes, and interest rate volatility. The stock also has high beta (1.25), making it more volatile than the market. Specific to Yes Bank, the key monitorables are: 1) Sustenance of improved asset quality 2) Growth in retail and SME loans 3) Stable NIMs 4) Continued improvement in CASA ratio.
At what price should I consider buying Yes Bank shares?
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For short-term trades, consider buying in the ₹20-₹21.50 range. For medium to long-term investments, a staggered approach between ₹19-₹22 is recommended. Use support levels mentioned in the table for better entry points. The ideal accumulation strategy would be to start buying at ₹21 and add more at ₹20 and ₹19 if the stock corrects further. Avoid buying all at once given the stock's volatility.
When should I book profits in Yes Bank?
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Consider partial profit booking at resistance levels: ₹25 in Q4 2025, ₹28 in Q1 2026, ₹32 in Q2 2026, ₹34 in Q3 2026, and ₹36 in Q4 2026. Always maintain a core position for long-term growth while booking partial profits at technical resistance levels. A good strategy would be to book 25-30% profits at each major resistance level and hold the remaining for long-term targets.
How does Yes Bank's valuation compare to peers?
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Yes Bank trades at a P/E of 24.26, which is higher than some peers but justified by its higher growth trajectory. The PEG ratio of 0.27 suggests it may be undervalued on a growth-adjusted basis compared to industry averages. While the P/B ratio of 1.38 is reasonable compared to peers trading at 2-3.5x book, the key differentiator is Yes Bank's superior growth rates in revenue and earnings, which justify the premium valuation.
What dividend can I expect from Yes Bank?
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Yes Bank is not expected to pay dividends in the near term as it focuses on conserving capital for growth. Once the bank achieves sustained profitability and comfortable capital adequacy, it may consider restarting dividends by 2027-2028. For now, the investment case is purely based on capital appreciation rather than dividend income.
Important Disclaimer: The following analysis and projections are for informational and educational purposes only. They are based on the provided data and general market analysis. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing in the stock market, especially in individual stocks like Yes Bank, carries inherent risks. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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