Nifty Jan-Feb 2026: Downside Targets, Key Levels, and Short-Sell Scenarios
Published: January 10, 2026 | Market Data as of: Closing, January 9, 2026 | Analysis Type: Technical Perspective (Not Financial Advice)
Hey everyone, welcome back to the blog. The start of 2026 has brought some interesting price action to the Nifty. After that stellar run-up last year, the index seems to be catching its breath. As of yesterday's close, we're sitting at 25,683.30, noticeably off the recent highs and even below the day's open. That kind of price action gets a technical analyst's attention.
In this post, we're going to break down the key charts for the next crucial weeks—January through February 2026. We'll identify the floors (supports) and ceilings (resistances) the market is likely to respect, map out potential downside targets if the selling pressure continues, and most importantly, translate this into four concrete trading scenarios for those considering short positions. Remember, trading is about planning, not predicting.
Quick Snapshot (as of 9 Jan 2026 Close):
Current: 25,683.30 | Open: 25,840.40 | High: 25,940.60
Low: 25,623.00 | Prev. Close: 25,876.85
52-Wk High: 26,373.20 | 52-Wk Low: 21,743.65
Immediate Observation: The index closed near the day's low and below the previous close, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
Key Price Levels: The Battlefield Map
Think of these levels as the major trenches in the market's current war between bulls and bears. A break on either side gives us clues about who's winning.
🛡️ Strong Support Levels (Floors)
If the market falls, these are zones where buying might emerge, potentially pausing or reversing the decline.
- S1: 25,400 - 25,450
Recent swing low & psychological level. - S2: 25,000 - 25,100
Major psychological round number and previous congestion zone. - S3: 24,600 - 24,750
50% Retracement of the recent up-move (from ~24k to 26,373) and a strong historical level. - S4: 24,200 - 24,300
200-day moving average (approximate) and a deep value area from Q4 2025.
🚧 Strong Resistance Levels (Ceilings)
If the market tries to rally, these are zones where selling pressure could kick in again.
- R1: 25,850 - 25,950
Yesterday's open/gap area and immediate hurdle. - R2: 26,100 - 26,200
Previous swing high and the path to the all-time high. - R3: 26,373 (All-Time High)
The absolute ceiling. A clean break above changes the entire narrative. - R4: 26,500 - 26,600
Extended target and psychological resistance if ATH is broken.
🎯 Potential Downside Targets
If support breaks, these are the next logical areas where the decline might find a temporary bottom.
- T1: 25,100 (Test of S2)
- T2: 24,750 (Test of S3)
- T3: 24,300 (Test of S4)
- T4: 24,000 (Major psychological support)
- T5: 23,600 (Deep retracement and 2025 swing low zone)
⚠️ Exit All Shorts Signal
If the Nifty starts trading sustainably above 26,150 (closing basis), the bearish short-term thesis is invalidated. Traders should consider exiting all bearish/short positions, as this increases the probability of a retest or break of the all-time high (26,373.20). The stop-loss for any short trade is your final guard, but a break above this level is a market-wide "risk-off" signal for the bearish view.
Actionable Short-Sell Scenarios (For Educational Purpose)
Here are four hypothetical setups based on the levels defined above. Each includes an entry rationale, profit target, and a strict stop-loss. Risk management is non-negotiable.
Scenario 1: The Immediate Rejection Play
Rationale: The market tries to rally back to fill yesterday's gap but fails at the resistance zone, confirming immediate weakness.
Trigger/Entry: Sell on a pullback towards 25,850 - 25,900 with a bearish candlestick pattern (like a doji or engulfing) on the 30-min or 1-hour chart.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 26,050 (above the recent minor swing high).
Profit Target 1 (Partial Book): 25,400 (S1 Support)
Profit Target 2 (Full Exit): 25,100 (T1/S2 Support)
Risk-Reward (on T2): ~1:3.5 (Potential risk 150 pts vs reward 550-750 pts)
Scenario 2: Breakdown of Key Support
Rationale: The index consolidates and then breaks below the immediate support level of 25,400 with volume, triggering a new leg down.
Trigger/Entry: Sell on a confirmed break (15-30 min close below) of 25,400.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 25,600 (above the breakdown point and recent minor consolidation).
Profit Target 1: 25,100 (T1)
Profit Target 2: 24,750 (T2)
Risk-Reward (on T2): ~1:3.25 (Risk 200 pts, Reward 650 pts)
Scenario 3: The Dead Cat Bounce Sell
Rationale: After a sharp fall to ~25,100, a weak bounce occurs towards the previous breakdown level (now resistance), offering a high-probability re-entry.
Trigger/Entry: Sell on a bounce that fails at 25,400 - 25,450 (old support turned resistance) with rejection signs.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 25,550.
Profit Target 1: 24,750 (T2)
Profit Target 2: 24,300 (T3)
Risk-Reward (on T2): ~1:4 (Risk 100-150 pts, Reward 600-700 pts)
Scenario 4: The Major Trendline Break
Rationale: A more aggressive scenario if broader market sentiment sours. The index breaks the major rising trendline from 2025 lows.
Trigger/Entry: Sell on a decisive break below 24,600 (S3) which also likely breaches the long-term trendline.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss at 24,900.
Profit Target 1: 24,300 (T3/S4)
Profit Target 2: 24,000 (T4)
Profit Target 3 (Runner): 23,600 (T5) for a partial position.
Risk-Reward (on T4): ~1:2 (Risk 300 pts, Reward 600 pts)
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why are you only focusing on the downside for Nifty?
This analysis is based on the current technical structure (closing near lows, rejection from highs) which suggests a higher probability of a corrective move or consolidation in the near term. It's not a long-term bearish call. We always identify key resistance levels (like 26,150) which, if broken, would completely shift the view to neutral or bullish.
How did you calculate these specific support and target levels?
They are derived from a mix of: 1) Recent Price Swings (Highs & Lows), 2) Psychological Round Numbers (25,000, 24,000), 3) Fibonacci Retracement Levels of the recent up-move, and 4) Key Moving Averages (like the 200-DMA). These are classic technical tools that many institutional and retail traders watch, creating self-fulfilling zones of action.
Should I short-sell Nifty based on this article?
NO. This article is an educational exercise in technical analysis and trade planning. Short-selling carries unlimited risk if the market moves against you (theoretically infinite losses). You should only engage in such strategies if you fully understand the risks, have adequate capital, and have consulted with a professional financial advisor. Paper-trade these scenarios first.
What time frame are these trades/scenarios meant for?
These are primarily geared towards a swing trading time frame, holding from a few days to a few weeks (Jan-Feb 2026). Entries should be confirmed using lower time frames (like 30-minute or hourly charts) for precise triggers. They are not intended for intraday or long-term investing.
Final Thoughts: The market is at an inflection point. The levels laid out here—25,400, 25,000, 24,750 on the downside and 25,850, 26,150 on the upside—will be crucial to watch. The scenarios are not predictions but plans for "if-then" situations. The most important level for any bearish trader is the 26,150 invalidation point. Above that, the bears should step aside.
Trade safe, manage your risk ruthlessly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Let's see how January unfolds!
- [Piyush Sharma]
Data Source: Nifty 50 prices as of closing on January 9, 2026. Analysis performed on derived technical levels.
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