Refex Industries Ltd (NSE: REFEX) Stock Analysis & Price Forecast for 2026
Refex Industries Ltd has shown remarkable growth in recent years, with its stock price reflecting strong performance in the industrial gases sector. In this comprehensive analysis, we'll examine the company's financial health, growth prospects, and provide detailed price targets for 2026.
Company Overview
Refex Industries Ltd is an Indian company primarily engaged in the industrial gases business. With headquarters in India and approximately 295 employees as of 2025, the company has expanded through subsidiaries including Refex Green Mobility Limited, Venwind Refex Power Limited, and Vituza Solar Energy. The company's current market capitalization stands at approximately ₹4,573.30 crores.
Financial Performance Analysis
Refex Industries demonstrated impressive financial performance in 2025, with revenue growth of 78.45% year-over-year to ₹24.68 billion. Net income increased by 69.15% to ₹1.59 billion, though net profit margin slightly declined by 5.30% to 6.43%. The company's EBITDA grew by 35.51% to ₹1.98 billion.
However, cash flow metrics present a mixed picture. While net income showed strong growth, cash from operations was negative at -₹2.65 billion, representing a significant decline. Free cash flow was also negative at -₹4.13 billion, indicating substantial investments in business expansion.
Stock Price Forecast for 2026
| Forecast Type | Price Target (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 480 - 520 | Moderate growth scenario |
| Bull Case | 550 - 600 | Strong growth continuation |
| Bear Case | 320 - 350 | Market correction scenario |
Upside Price Targets
| Target Level | Price (INR) | Potential Gain |
|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 420 | 18.7% |
| Target 2 | 460 | 30.0% |
| Target 3 | 500 | 41.3% |
| Target 4 | 540 | 52.6% |
| Target 5 | 580 | 63.9% |
Downside Price Targets
| Support Level | Price (INR) | Potential Decline |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | 340 | -3.9% |
| Support 2 | 320 | -9.6% |
| Support 3 | 300 | -15.2% |
| Support 4 | 280 | -20.9% |
| Support 5 | 260 | -26.5% |
Time-Based Price Targets
Short-Term Targets (1-3 Months)
| Target | Price (INR) | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 380 | 1 month |
| Target 2 | 400 | 2 months |
| Target 3 | 420 | 3 months |
Medium-Term Targets (3-12 Months)
| Target | Price (INR) | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 450 | 6 months |
| Target 2 | 480 | 9 months |
| Target 3 | 520 | 12 months |
Long-Term Targets (2026)
| Target | Price (INR) | Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 480 | Base case |
| Moderate | 550 | Growth continues |
| Aggressive | 620 | Bull case |
Resistance and Support Levels
| Level Type | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | 370 | Immediate resistance |
| Resistance 2 | 390 | Previous high |
| Resistance 3 | 420 | Psychological level |
| Resistance 4 | 450 | Strong resistance zone |
| Resistance 5 | 480 | Year-end target |
| Support 1 | 340 | Recent low |
| Support 2 | 320 | 50-day MA |
| Support 3 | 300 | Strong support |
| Support 4 | 280 | 200-day MA |
| Support 5 | 260 | Major support |
Strong Buy Levels
| Buy Level | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Zone 1 | 320-330 | Strong technical support |
| Buy Zone 2 | 300-310 | Value buying opportunity |
| Buy Zone 3 | 280-290 | Major support level |
| Buy Zone 4 | Break above 370 | Breakout confirmation |
| Buy Zone 5 | 350 with volume | Dip with high volume |
Strong Sell Levels
| Sell Level | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Zone 1 | 480-490 | Overbought territory |
| Sell Zone 2 | 520-530 | Extended rally |
| Sell Zone 3 | Break below 320 | Breakdown signal |
| Sell Zone 4 | 380 with weakness | Failed breakout |
| Sell Zone 5 | 420 with divergence | Technical divergence |
Profit Booking Levels
| Profit Booking Level | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Booking 1 | 420 | Partial profit taking |
| Booking 2 | 460 | Take 30% profits |
| Booking 3 | 500 | Take 50% profits |
| Booking 4 | 540 | Take 70% profits |
| Booking 5 | 580 | Exit remaining position |
Breakout Price Levels
| Breakout Level | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Breakout 1 | 370 | Immediate resistance break |
| Breakout 2 | 390 | Confirms uptrend |
| Breakout 3 | 420 | Accelerates buying |
| Breakout 4 | 450 | New high territory |
| Breakout 5 | 480 | Parabolic move possible |
Breakdown Price Levels
| Breakdown Level | Price (INR) | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Breakdown 1 | 340 | Immediate support break |
| Breakdown 2 | 320 | Confirms downtrend |
| Breakdown 3 | 300 | Accelerates selling |
| Breakdown 4 | 280 | Major trend change |
| Breakdown 5 | 260 | Bear market territory |
Expected Financial Performance for 2026
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Estimate | Growth Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (INR) | 14.70 | 17.50 - 19.00 | 19% - 29% |
| EBITDA (INR Billion) | 1.98 | 2.40 - 2.60 | 21% - 31% |
| Net Income (INR Billion) | 1.59 | 1.90 - 2.10 | 19% - 32% |
| Revenues (INR Billion) | 24.68 | 29.00 - 31.00 | 17% - 26% |
| Net Profit Margin | 6.43% | 6.50% - 6.80% | 1% - 6% |
| P/E Ratio | 24.06 | 22 - 26 | -9% to +8% |
Analysis Summary
| Aspect | Technical Analysis | Fundamental Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| Outlook | Bullish with resistance at 370 | Positive growth trajectory |
| Strength | Uptrend intact above 340 | Strong revenue growth (78.45% YoY) |
| Weakness | Need to break 370 for next leg up | Negative operating cash flow |
| Opportunity | Break above 370 targets 420+ | Green energy subsidiaries potential |
| Threat | Break below 320 could test 300 | High PE ratio compared to industry |
| Verdict | Buy on dips with stop loss at 320 | Long-term growth story intact |
Pro Tips for Traders & Investors
For Short-Term Traders (1-3 Months)
Focus on the 340-370 range. Buy near support at 340-345 with a stop loss at 320. Target 380-400 on the upside. Watch for breakout above 370 with high volume for extended moves to 420.
For Medium-Term Investors (3-12 Months)
Accumulate on dips toward 320-330. The 12-month target is 480-520, representing 35-47% upside from current levels. Maintain a core position with partial profit booking at 420, 460, and 500 levels.
For Long-Term Investors (2026 and Beyond)
Refex Industries shows strong fundamental growth with 78% revenue increase in 2025. The expansion into green energy through subsidiaries provides long-term growth drivers. Consider systematic investment with a 2-3 year horizon targeting 550-620 levels.
Can this stock be a multibagger in 2026?
Based on current analysis, Refex Industries has the potential for significant returns but may not achieve traditional "multibagger" status (10x returns) in 2026 alone. However, with projected upside of 40-75% from current levels, it represents a strong growth opportunity. The company's expansion into green mobility and solar energy through subsidiaries could drive longer-term multibagger potential beyond 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Short-term targets for REFEX are 380 INR (1 month), 400 INR (2 months), and 420 INR (3 months). These targets assume the stock maintains its current uptrend and breaks through resistance at 370 INR.
Medium-term targets for REFEX are 450 INR (6 months), 480 INR (9 months), and 520 INR (12 months). These projections are based on continued fundamental growth and positive market sentiment toward industrial gases and green energy sectors.
Long-term targets for 2026 are 480 INR (conservative), 550 INR (moderate), and 620 INR (aggressive). The variation depends on execution of growth strategies, market conditions, and performance of green energy subsidiaries.
Ideal buying zones are between 320-330 INR (strong support), 300-310 INR (value zone), and on breakout above 370 INR with high volume. Dollar-cost averaging can be effective for long-term investors.
Disclaimer
This stock analysis and forecast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any securities. The projections are based on historical data and analysis methodologies that may not account for all market variables. Investing in stocks carries risks, including potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Author: Piyush Sharma | Organization: Multibagger Stock Ideas
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