Wilmar International Limited (SGX: F34) - Stock Analysis & Price Targets
1. Stock Price Forecast for 2026
| Scenario | Price Target (SGD) | Potential Return | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | 3.75 - 4.10 | +22% to +34% | Historical P/E (14-15x) with 5% EPS growth |
| Bull Case | 4.25 - 4.60 | +39% to +50% | Improved margins, P/E expansion to 16-17x |
| Bear Case | 2.90 - 3.20 | -5% to +5% | Commodity price pressure, P/E contraction to 11-12x |
2. Upside Price Targets
| Target Level | Price (SGD) | Potential Return | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 3.45 | +12.7% | Break above 52-week high resistance |
| Target 2 | 3.65 | +19.3% | P/E expansion to 13.5x with stable earnings |
| Target 3 | 3.85 | +25.8% | Improved operational efficiency |
| Target 4 | 4.05 | +32.4% | Commodity price recovery & margin expansion |
| Target 5 | 4.25 | +38.9% | Strong earnings growth & P/E of 15x |
3. Downside Price Targets
| Target Level | Price (SGD) | Potential Loss | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target 1 | 2.95 | -3.6% | Near-term support level |
| Target 2 | 2.85 | -6.9% | 50-day moving average support |
| Target 3 | 2.75 | -10.1% | 52-week low retest |
| Target 4 | 2.65 | -13.4% | Commodity price pressure |
| Target 5 | 2.55 | -16.7% | Market downturn & earnings miss |
4. Time-Based Price Targets
| Timeframe | Target Levels (SGD) | Potential Return | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short Term (1-3 months) | 3.25 | +6.2% | Technical breakout |
| 3.35 | +9.5% | Quarterly results beat | |
| 3.20 | -4.6% | Profit booking | |
| 3.15 | -2.9% | Market volatility | |
| 3.40 | +11.1% | Sector rotation | |
| Medium Term (6-12 months) | 3.55 | +16.0% | Earnings growth |
| 3.70 | +20.9% | P/E expansion | |
| 3.45 | +12.7% | Dividend stability | |
| 3.80 | +24.2% | Operational improvements | |
| 3.30 | +7.8% | Moderate growth scenario | |
| Long Term (2026) | 3.95 | +29.1% | Sustainable earnings growth |
| 4.15 | +35.6% | Market share gains | |
| 4.35 | +42.2% | Strategic initiatives payoff | |
| 4.00 | +30.7% | Steady performance | |
| 4.25 | +38.9% | Optimistic growth scenario |
5. Resistance and Support Levels
| Resistance Levels (SGD) | Strength | Support Levels (SGD) | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.38 (52-week high) | Strong | 3.00 (Psychological) | Moderate |
| 3.45 | Moderate | 2.95 (Recent low) | Strong |
| 3.55 | Strong | 2.88 (200-day MA) | Strong |
| 3.65 | Moderate | 2.80 | Moderate |
| 3.75 | Strong | 2.78 (52-week low) | Very Strong |
6. Strong Buy Levels After Breakout
| Buy Level (SGD) | Stop Loss (SGD) | Target (SGD) | Risk/Reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.40 (Breakout confirmation) | 3.25 | 3.65 | 1:1.67 |
| 3.30 (Pullback entry) | 3.15 | 3.70 | 1:2.67 |
| 3.25 (Strong support) | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1:2.33 |
| 3.35 (Momentum continuation) | 3.20 | 3.75 | 1:2.67 |
| 3.45 (Breakout extension) | 3.30 | 3.85 | 1:2.67 |
7. Strong Sell Levels
| Sell Level (SGD) | Stop Loss (SGD) | Target (SGD) | Risk/Reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.35 (Resistance rejection) | 3.45 | 3.10 | 1:2.5 |
| 3.30 (Breakdown confirmation) | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1:3.0 |
| 3.25 (Weakness continuation) | 3.35 | 2.95 | 1:3.0 |
| 3.20 (Break of support) | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1:3.0 |
| 3.15 (Momentum breakdown) | 3.25 | 2.85 | 1:3.0 |
8. Profit Booking Levels
| Price Level (SGD) | Booking Percentage | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 - 3.45 | 10-20% | Initial resistance zone, partial profit |
| 3.50 - 3.60 | 20-30% | Strong historical resistance |
| 3.65 - 3.75 | 30-40% | Overbought territory, significant gains |
| 3.80 - 3.90 | 40-50% | Extended rally, consider major profit booking |
| 4.00+ | 50-70% | Exceptional gains, reassess position |
9. Breakout Price Levels
| Breakout Level (SGD) | Confirmation | Target (SGD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.38 | Close above with volume > 20% avg | 3.55 - 3.65 |
| 3.45 | 2 consecutive closes above | 3.70 - 3.80 |
| 3.55 | Break with strong momentum | 3.85 - 4.00 |
| 3.65 | Sustained move above | 4.10 - 4.25 |
| 3.75 | Major resistance break | 4.30 - 4.50 |
10. Breakdown Price Levels
| Breakdown Level (SGD) | Confirmation | Target (SGD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | Close below with high volume | 2.90 - 2.95 |
| 2.95 | 2 consecutive closes below | 2.85 - 2.90 |
| 2.90 | Break of key support | 2.80 - 2.85 |
| 2.85 | Sustained selling pressure | 2.75 - 2.80 |
| 2.80 | Major support break | 2.65 - 2.75 |
11. Expected Financial Performance for 2026
| Financial Indicator | Projected 2026 | Growth vs 2024 | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (USD) | 71.5B - 73.8B | +6% to +9.5% | Volume growth, price increases |
| Net Income (USD) | 1.35B - 1.50B | +15% to +28% | Margin improvement, cost control |
| EPS (USD) | 0.22 - 0.24 | +16% to +26% | Earnings growth, share count stability |
| P/E Ratio | 14 - 16 | +13% to +29% | Market recognition of growth |
| Dividend Yield | 4.8% - 5.2% | +5% to +14% | Stable payout ratio, earnings growth |
| Return on Equity | 6.5% - 7.5% | +15% to +33% | Improved profitability |
| Debt to Equity | 1.55 - 1.65 | Stable to slight increase | Strategic investments |
Important Disclaimer
Price targets and financial projections are based on current financial data, technical analysis, and market conditions which can change anytime. Company financial positions and market dynamics will also change over time, so regularly monitor your investments and stay updated with company news and financial performance. This analysis should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Professional Trading & Investment Tips
For Short-Term Traders (1-3 months)
Strategy: Range trading between 3.00-3.35 SGD with breakout plays
Entry: Near support at 3.05-3.10 SGD for longs, near resistance at 3.30-3.35 SGD for shorts
Targets: 3.25-3.35 SGD (upside), 3.00-3.05 SGD (downside)
Stop Loss: 2.95 SGD for longs, 3.40 SGD for shorts
Key Levels: Watch 3.00 SGD support and 3.35 SGD resistance for breakouts
For Medium-Term Investors (6-12 months)
Strategy: Accumulate on dips with core holding approach
Entry: Scale in between 3.00-3.15 SGD for better average price
Targets: 3.50-3.70 SGD (primary), 3.80-4.00 SGD (stretch)
Stop Loss: 2.85 SGD (below key support)
Dividend Focus: Current 4.58% yield provides downside protection
For Long-Term Investors (2026 Target)
Strategy: Value investment with dividend reinvestment
Entry: Current levels attractive for long-term portfolio
Targets: 3.75-4.25 SGD by 2026 (22-39% upside plus dividends)
Hold Period: 2-3 years for full valuation realization
Key Metrics to Watch: Earnings growth, margin expansion, commodity prices
Frequently Asked Questions
While Wilmar International has solid fundamentals, becoming a multibagger (returning 10x investment) by 2026 is unlikely given its large market cap and mature business model. More realistic expectations are 30-50% returns by 2026 if execution improves and commodity cycles turn favorable. The stock offers steady growth with dividend income rather than explosive multibagger potential.
Short-term targets (1-3 months) range from 3.25-3.40 SGD on the upside if the stock breaks resistance, with downside support at 3.00-3.05 SGD. Key levels to watch are 3.35 SGD resistance and 3.00 SGD support for directional moves.
Medium-term targets (6-12 months) range from 3.50-3.80 SGD, representing 15-25% upside from current levels. These targets are based on earnings growth, P/E expansion to 14-15x, and improved operational efficiency.
Long-term targets (by 2026) range from 3.75-4.25 SGD, representing 22-39% upside from current price. These projections assume 5-7% annual revenue growth, margin improvement, and stable P/E multiples of 14-16x.
For traders: Consider buying near support at 3.05-3.10 SGD with stop loss at 2.95 SGD. For investors: Current levels around 3.06 SGD are reasonable for initial position, with additional buying at 3.00 SGD or below for better margin of safety. Dollar-cost averaging between 3.00-3.15 SGD is recommended for long-term investors.
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